![]() This chance to get out of town also affords us the opportunity to recharge our batteries as we continue the fight against the many challenges that our world faces.īut let us not act as if this time of year is easier simply because parents do not have to wake their children for school each morning. ![]() I have many happy memories from my own childhood of travel and camp - memories that we do our best to replicate for our own children.įor many, summer also presents an opportunity to escape from work, if only for a little while. Whether it is a long weekend or a couple of weeks away, a staycation or international travel, it is healthy to take a step back from our professional lives. On the whole, I try to be a person who is excited by the onset of summer as I am a firm believer that our children deserve a prolonged break from their in-school education. I know Bieber’s ERA is 3.20, but this isn’t just not having velocity, it’s not missing bats and getting swings on balls.With only a few days left in the school year, the thoughts of children and their parents around central Ohio turn to a term that makes some elated and others filled with dread: summer vacation. Shane Bieber has just collapsed in Ks and this is probably the reason - even with the same velocity as in 2022, he was a decent 47.6 in the stat. Aaron Nola is just not the same pitcher, down to 43 from 52.7. We thought last time that Graham Ashcraft was going to flop and he did - you don’t want him on our roster. It’s basically the same guys as last time: Alek Manoah is just not good - he’s down to 40.5 from 48 (bad now compared with above average in 2022). Let’s look at some disappointing pitchers. Remember, as Warren Buffett famously said (paraphrasing), no one ever went broke making money. So I would trade them near the value of their current stats. Brown and Elder we don’t have good prior data on. So hold him - he apparently can win in other ways. But Valdez was almost exactly the same last year. The best pitchers in ERA who are poor in the stat are Framber Valdez (53rd of 69), Hunter Brown (55th) and, to a lesser extent, Bryce Elder (42nd). I have to give a hat tip to my The Athletic colleague John Laghezza, who said on our Breakfast Table podcast that the expected ERA made no sense and Berríos would pitch better - he was right. Berríos is a hold and someone who you can trade for given his cost is probably so low. But this pull is bullish on Berríos and I follow the data and the models as dispassionately as possible. ![]() His Statcast ERA was as bad as his actual one. He’s not going to stay sub-3.00 and sub-1.00, but he’s earned a hold on his fantasy roster spot when he has the inevitable two of three disappointing starts. Tyler Wells is 70% rostered but this says he’s 71st percentile in the stat. 5 fantasy starter on a championship staff who we expected last time. He’s holding up - 80th percentile in the stat, and he has a lot of room to be the No. Nathan Eovaldi was the big validation in the previous column, despite the commenters who killed me for recommending him. Since these stats stabilize more quickly than ERA, consider the ERA more random and be confident that Alcantara will be much closer to the pitcher you expected for the balance of the year, health permitting (of course). But his combined zone miss and out-of-zone swing percentages are 55 compared with 53 last year. His xwOBA is worse than average, too, at. I need to talk about Sandy Alcantara, who has a 4.91 ERA. If he’s on waivers now, he’ll probably stay there through Saturday, and then it’s not even costing you a start to grab him. But he has to be rostered if he’s on waivers even though you can’t IL a guy who is suspended. I have no idea how to calibrate his performance with his suspension. He’s third in our stat after Joe Ryan and Spencer Strider and before Shane McClanahan and Pablo Lopez. He’s now dropped down to 36% rostered despite a sub-4.00 ERA and sub 1.00 WHIP. Maybe that’s the cause of his much better pitching. He’s had multiple run-ins with umps over sticky stuff this year. Let’s start with the one widely available guy, Domingo Germán, who is currently serving a 10-game suspension for failing a sticky substance check. But the hope is that we can strengthen the belief in some pitchers once viewed as fringe or worse, and weaken it in those who we expected to be very good and who are not. Most of the guys who are great in these underlying stats are great in actual stats. The yield in an exercise like this is going to be low.
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